A Study published in the journal Nature May 23 analyzed 35 years of precipitation data (from 1980 to 2015), to reveal the influence of global climate models, or cablellies, on rains in Morocco during the wet season.
By focusing on major climatic phenomena such as North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), Southern El Niño oscillation (ENSO), East Atlantic Oscillation (EA), Mediterranean oscillation (MO) and Western Mediterranean oscillation (WEMO), the study highlights the influence of each factors Morocco, according to the seasons.
The main conclusions indicate that the NAO and the MO have a preponderant influence on winter precipitation, while the EA and the WEMO play a more decisive role in the spring. Other models, such as the Scandinavian model (scand) and the Atlantic model is Western Russia (EATL/WRUS), also modulate precipitation on a regional scale.
It is particularly notable that the influence of the ENSO has increased since 2000, reflecting an intensification of climatic interactions between the Pacific and the Atlantic, suggesting an evolution of global climatic dynamics.
“These results shed light on the dynamics of seasonal and regional teleconnection which govern precipitation in Morocco and highlight an emerging influence of the climatic variability of the Pacific to the 21st century,” conclude the authors. This understanding can “improve seasonal forecasts to support climate adaptation efforts in North Africa”.
